Simulation Laboratory›Random variables and distributions

Environment 04 · Planning decision lab

Repeated outcomes form a distribution

A campaign sends offers to a fixed number of customers. Change the number contacted and the response probability to see the range of likely conversions.

FrameExploreInterpretDecide

Explore the evidence

Theoretical and simulated conversion counts

Included in the selected eventOutside the eventSimulated proportion

Interpret

Expected value is a long-run centre

Decide

Plan campaign capacity

Choose n and p so that the expected number of responses is about 10. Then examine whether staffing for exactly 10 responses is sensible.

See the mathematics and assumptions

For X ~ Binomial(n,p), P(X=x) = C(n,x)pˣ(1-p)ⁿ⁻ˣ, E(X)=np, and Var(X)=np(1-p). This model assumes a fixed number of independent trials with the same success probability.