Explore the evidence
Late orders and rainy periods
Event AEvent BBoth
UnionEvery case in A, B, or both.
ConditionRestrict attention to event B, then ask how many are also A.
DependenceCompare observed overlap with P(A)P(B).
Environment 03 · Probability decision lab
Who is affected, and what should we do?
Define two events, control their overlap, and translate the resulting probabilities into an operational decision.
FrameExploreInterpretDecide
Interpret
Overall probability and conditional risk answer different questions
Make the decision
Which group should receive priority?
Choose a target group to see its practical meaning.
Decision brief
See the mathematics and assumptions
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B). P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) ÷ P(B). If A and B are independent, P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B). The lift P(A | B) ÷ P(A) shows how much conditioning on B changes the baseline probability of A.